Positive Gunner

This quote talks about poetry but right now, it applies to my mindset about Arsenal football as well — “When you explain poetry, it becomes banal. Better than any explanation is the experience of feelings that poetry can reveal to a nature open enough to understand it.” — trying to endlessly dissect and explain every part of the arsenal and constantly argue about things that in truth I have no control over and probably will never really know the complete inside out story about has made me weary and is taking away from the joy of the beautiful game and the joy of supporting the arsenal and in the end, all I want is that joy.

Here is the current list of players over 21 —

1. Szczesny (HG)
2. Fabianski
3. Mannone (HG)
4. Sagna
5. Mertesacker
6. Vermaelen
7. Djourou (HG)
8. Santos
9. Squillaci
10. Gibbs (HG)
11. Koscielny
12. Diaby
13. Rosicky
14. Arteta
15. Ramsey (HG)
16. Arshavin
17. Cazorla
18. Giroud
19. Podolski
20. Walcott (HG)
21. Park
22. Chamakh
23. Gervinho
24. Bendtner (HG)

— that is 24…including 7 HG players (and no I’m not including Eastmond here because he’s not worthy of being registered for the first team) 

The ones Under 21 are — Jenkinson, Wilshere, Coquelin, Chamberlain, Frimpong 

Of the 24, Arsene himself confirmed (earlier this month after the Asia Tour) that Squillaci, Park and Bendtner are nearly off as well.

So we’ll be down to 21 with 6 HG players, giving us squad spaces for 2 foreign players and 2 HG players. Arshavin and Chamakh might be off as well and that gives us space to sign 4 foreign players and 2 home grown players. (Coquelin and Jenkinson will be registered next season and I think both might count as HG players)

Here is the current list of players over 21 —

1. Szczesny (HG)
2. Fabianski
3. Mannone (HG)
4. Sagna
5. Mertesacker
6. Vermaelen
7. Djourou (HG)
8. Santos
9. Squillaci
10. Gibbs (HG)
11. Koscielny
12. Diaby
13. Rosicky
14. Arteta
15. Ramsey (HG)
16. Arshavin
17. Cazorla
18. Lansbury (HG)
19. Giroud
20. Podolski
21. Walcott (HG)
22. Park
23. Chamakh
24. Gervinho
25. Bendtner (HG)

— that is 25…including 8 HG players (and no I’m not including Eastmond here because he’s not worthy of being registered for the first team)

The ones Under 21 are — Jenkinson, Wilshere, Coquelin, Chamberlain, Frimpong

Of the 25, Arsene himself confirmed (earlier this month after the Asia Tour) that Squillaci, Park and Bendtner are nearly off as well. So we’ll be down to 22 with 7 HG players, giving us squad spaces for 2 foreign players and one HG player. Arshavin might be likely to leave as well since he’s down to his last year of contract and his number board was supposedly taken down from the Armoury when someone checked yesterday. There’s a chance that Chamakh could go too. If all this goes as planned (I think it will) - that gives us space to sign 4 foreign players and one home grown player. (Coquelin will be registered next season and possibly as a HG player since he’s been here since 2008 when he was only 17)

In response to an article on @ladyarse about how FFP won’t work…here are a few counter points

First, the shortfall allowed for the first accounting period is 45mil EUROS which in today’s exchange rate translates to a little over 35mil pounds total over 3 years. Also, this 45mil is only allowed if the debt amount is taken up by owners through equitable investments (money in exchange for shares) otherwise it is just 5mil euros of allowed loss for the 3 year period.

And this isn’t really something you can “hide” since it covers all player, agent and wage transactions including signing fees and bonuses (losses from developing infrastructure like a new stadium are allowed).

Secondly, the city deal that everyone keeps harping on about, well that deal is currently under investigation and has NOT been approved YET under UEFA’s fair value policy. So the outcome of that will be interesting to see.

As for teams earning money from sponsorships and TV Revenues (the right way), that’s a fair way to earn money and teams like Madrid and United are profitable because of their excellent commercial revenue (and ours will go up from 2014 as well). FFP is designed to prevent sugar daddies from essentially doing financial doping (like Chelsea did where Roman wrote off the money)

Lastly, UEFA has the backing of the European Commission on this and it also has the backing of the Spanish giants and most teams in Europe. The ones most affected by this will be people with new money making big losses, namely Chelsea and City. United, Madrid, Barca and most other big teams meet FFP regulations by spending what they earn. If anything, it is in the best interests of Madrid and Barca to push for FFP as the skewed revenue distribution in Spanish football is set to be re-organized a bit and revenues are likely to drop more considering the state of Spain’s economy.

I still have plenty of hope for FFP to come through and work.

‎”Life is like a book with many chapters we call seasons. 
Some chapters tell the story of love, drama, comedy, 
mystery, loss, adversity, growth, disappointment, triumph, etc. 

Some chapters are dull and ordinary, others intense and exciting. 
The key to enduring, persevering and being hopeful is to never stop 
on a difficult page, to never quit on a book or a chapter that seems 
too long. Some chapters may be sweet but too short. Your words, 
thoughts, actions, non-action and choices are the pens that write the 
pages in your book. 

Have the courage and faith to keep turning the pages believing better 
chapters lie ahead. Trust. Listen. Believe.
Activate your gifts and talents. 
Be creative. Be kind. Be patient. Be faithful. Be grateful. Be fruitful.”

Diamond Taylor 

Slightly edited but this is so true

when people question Arsenal’s ambition i laugh. They need a slight refresh of what it really means

am·bi·tion   /amˈbiSHən/

Noun:

A strong desire to do or to achieve something, typically requiring determination and hard work.

Spending a lot of money doesn’t require determination or hard work. It just requires deep pockets. The Arsenal way (the classy way) is more ambitious than the sugar daddy way as you’re trying to beat the odds despite all adversity through sheer sweat and determination.

We give it our all and fall just short, that doesn’t mean we aren’t ambitious, that just means we try again without giving up. It also doesn’t mean we go looking for shortcuts, for then, success would not have been earned, it would be hollow

A reply to @AngryofN5’s post about “Chamakh the Pony” and the great Wage debate

First about Chamakh. I posted this as a comment to that article, but thought I’d share it here as well. Also, I tend to let the words that flow from an impassioned defense come out completely so some of this might seem a bit blunt. I apologize in advance about that.

It is easy to say a player is “pony” or wages are too much in hindsight. Unfortunately, a club cannot be run or managed on hindsight; you only use the information you have at the time of signing someone to judge how much they deserve on contract.

Phil seems to treat the French League and its Champions as some nobody team, well they went as far in the CL that season as we did in 2009/10 (so much for “wherever the hell he came from”). Chamakh actually helped his team to consecutive league titles in France. At the time of signing, he was actually proven in the CL and now holds a record for scoring in the most consecutive CL games (including goals against Juve and Bayern). We tried signing him the previous summer and winter for about £6-7mil but he wanted to represent Bordeaux in the CL (just like Hazard did last summer for Lille). What people don’t remember (or choose not to) is how Chamakh turned down offers from Liverpool, Spurs, Sunderland and Russia to join us (some even offering more than what we did). If he was so “pony” when signed then why were any of these teams offering him contracts in the first place?

Plus, people conveniently forget that he had a hot start for us by contributing over 15 goals in his first 4-5 months here and since then, has barely had the chance to play because of RVP’s other worldly form and our luck with RVPs fitness. If it weren’t for that start, considering our utterly dismal end to the 2010/11 season, we would NOT have reached the top 4 that year. This year, with RVP as captain and continuing his immense form, his chances to play have been even harder to come by with under 200mins in the PL season, how much can you expect a striker to score in that much time?

NOW WAGES

Phil’s suggestion to offer small increases to contracts is incredibly unrealistic and will NEVER work. Giroud was earning 15-20k a week in France, and now we’ve signed him and have offered him 45-50k per week. Chelsea in comparison are rumoured to have offered him 90k a week, so if we followed the policy Phil was suggesting, then you can rest assured that we’ll lose out on even more targets to rivals because we don’t pay up. Whether we like it or not, fact is that a squad player earns anywhere from 40-60k a week. If you don’t pay them even that much, you won’t have much of a squad left.

And these numbers aren’t even outrageous, they’re a natural progression.

5-10k per week — Youth players like Miquel

15-25k per week — exceptional youngsters or those signed from outside like Ox, Joel and Ryo

40-60k per week — Players who make the jump from youth and reserve level to become a regular part of the first team after showing they can perform. Denilson and Bendtner showed their worth in 2008-2009, Wilshere and Szczesny in 2010-2011.

40-60k per week — First team squad players who are signed from abroad (where previous contracts are lower but consideration needs to be made for higher taxation levels in the UK as well). Park got 40k/week, Gervinho, Koscielny and Chamakh around 50-55k, Nasri (in the past) and Mertesacker got 60k/week

70-90k per week — Key first team players. Arshavin, Van Persie, Arteta and Vermaelen all earn in this wage range. I expect Walcott, Koscielny, Sagna and Song to jump into this range as well once they renew their contracts.

above 100k per week — We have no one in this range yet but if someone like RVP renewed, they’d go into this range.

Note: It must be noted that most players are unwilling of accepting a large part of their wage in performances bonuses. It was rumoured that Nasri had been offered 90k/week and performances bonuses that would take it to 110k/week but he turned that down. Now he’s earning 170k/week at City.

I personally see little wrong in the structure though I do agree that we have played a risky game of rewarding potential on the basis of one good season like we did for Denilson and Wilshere. It has its pros and cons though. On one hand it prevents a promising young player from being poached and rewards them for good performances on the pitch over the course of a season (we’ve never offered a contract raise to someone who hadn’t proved themselves in the first XI). On the flip side, it can look poor in hindsight if a player doesn’t live up to his potential like Denilson or Vela and makes it difficult to offload them. However, at the time of the contract, it is a fair and reasonable deal as its impossible to know that a player who has played well for one season will completely flop in future and only in hindsight does it look bad IMO.

We’re not the only ones who reward on the basis of potential either. Take a look at United. Macheda earns 35k/week at United (after scoring a couple of wonder goals and being hailed as their saviour). Hernandez upped his wages to something like 80k/week after his first season there. Cleverley got a contract increase to 40k/week after a good loan spell (I think he was yet to play United when he got the raise) and Welbeck is currently demanding 60k/week. 

Also just for comparison. If you look at the closest team above us in the league and look at the wages that they pay, you’ll notice that we’re offering roughly on par or less for our squad players.

Javier Hernandez – 80k/week

Ferdinand – 120k/week

Vidic – 90k/week

Carrick – 70k/week

Owen – 50k/week

Nani and Valencia – 90k/week

Smalling and Jones – 50-60k/week

Giggs – 80k/week

Berbatov – 110k/week

Cleverley — 40k/week

Welbeck – currently on 15k/week but after his first season is demanding a renewal for 60k/week

In the past

Wes Brown – 50k/week

John O’Shea – 60-70k/week

If you want us to compare to the team closest to us in the league, we can take a look at that too. Here’s some of the wages at Spurs who until this summer had a much tighter salary CAP of 80k/week. On average their wages are lesser than ours and certainly the wage cap leads to a tighter distribution. But you can see that even their squad players are earning similar amounts (though about 5-10k less as per their cap)

(Did a fair bit of searching for these wages and they’re from either news stories of contract renewals or from Spurs forum discussing their wages here — http://www.tottenhamhotspurs.tv/forum/players-lounge/20918-spurs-economics-club-wage-structure.html)

Lennon – 45-55k/week

Bale – 100k/week (his rumoured new contract value)

Modric – 65-75k/week

VdV – 55-65k/week

Parker – 55-65k/week

Krancjar – 40-50k/week

King – 60k/week

Defoe – 60k/week

Gomes – 35-45k/week

Dos Santos – 35k/week

Bassong – 50k/week

Dawson –45-55k/week

Gallas – 55-65k/week

Huddlestone – 35-45k/week

Bottom line is this

It is quite easy to complain about wages in hindsight, but you don’t have that luxury in real time. Everyone thinks Van Persie to be paid 130-150k/week and right now that seems deserved but if his form dropped or god forbid he got injured again, would people again cry out “Why were these wages offered?!?!?!”?

One more thing to explain the convenient timing of Usmanov.

This summer and next are the last two where our more severe financial restrictions will be in effect. Especially with wages. This is when Usmanov can convince people that he’s most needed for AFC because all he wants is total control to turn us into his money making play thing.

What he doesn’t tell you is this. Starting 2014, with the renegotiated deals in place. The below estimate (as I understand it) will be how much ADDITIONAL income we have every year compared to now.

Increase in TV and Prize Money for PL/CL performance (~£30-40mil)
Increase in value of existing shirt and kit deals (~30mil)
Additional Sponsorship deals (~10-20mil)

Add up these three and you’ll see that from the summer of 2014, we’ll have an additional 70-90mil pounds a year…and this is a conservative estimate as there are new commercial deals being negotiated all over the world and the value from additional deals might even be more.

So imagine, 70-90mil extra a year. More for transfers and wages. Who would need Usmanov to spend money then? No one. That is why he’s making all his moves and announcements this summer and next. He is DESPERATE.

Also for those doubting Gazidis and his abilities to run the club…know this

1. He was a big part of converting the MLS from a league of no consequence to something that is actually a legitimate destination for players to go to…Bekcham started it off, Henry is there and Kaka has plans to head there as well

2. Manchester City wanted him to oversee their massive spending and project to take over the league. Arsene wanted him and he turned down City to join us.

3. Dein was an excellent transfer negotiator but he never had to face oil money so his relevance in this era is questionable…oil money is competition that Gazidis deals with on every transfer that he and Dick Law have to negotiate

4. Dein also was never hindered by the massive limits that were in play here at Arsenal. Especially after the move to the Emirates. Summer of 2009 and 2010…we spent a combined amount of less than what Liverpool paid for Andy Carroll…that is all the money we had for 2 summers. 35mil.

5. Gazidis, in his first month here oversaw the club record transfer of Andrei Arshavin, who changed our fortunes in 2008/2009 season and got us into the top 4

6. What Gazidis inherited from Dein and Edelman was a boardroom and club in an utter mess with half the players running into their last years of contracts. He renewed RVP’s contract in 2009. And despite the club being in turmoil last summer, got Wilshere, Szczesny and Vermaelen to agree new long term deals

7. Gazidis also knew his job well enough to ensure that once CL was confirmed last summer, we managed to sign FIVE players in 3-4 days time of whom FOUR played a vital part in our recovery from 17th to 3rd

8. People slate him for letting RVP and Nasri run down their contracts. Well know this. These players chose to do so. Contracts were offered to them early in the season. Van Persie turned down his offer in September/October and opted to wait till the end of the year (Theo’s depended on him as well). Nasri turned down his offer in December and did the same. You CANNOT force a player to sign a contract

9. Also if you doubt that he can’t sign players…we got Giroud when Chelsea wanted him and Gervinho when City wanted him…Arsene and Gazidis were both big parts of convincing them

10. Take it from people who have met him (not me) and know that he’s a FAR more intelligent man than most of you give him credit for and he’s a better person to run the backend operations of the club than most people in the world.

11. His real test will be with new commercial deals for 2014 and from what I’m hearing, we might overtake Liverpool with the best shirt deal in the league (We’ve opened negotiations with Emirates for around 25mil a year apparently)

So before you mindlessly slate him…ask yourself…do you know all this?

For those who think Usmanov is a saviour…please educate yourselves before spouting rubbish

The guy is nothing more than an opportunistic slimeball who wanted to get his PR move done when the club was down and RVP had successfully disrupted club harmony

Read these and educate yourself. And if you doubt the source, craig murray is a former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan

http://bit.ly/kjjmFd

http://bit.ly/OysdbW

http://bit.ly/KXsUGW

http://bit.ly/cTFhGV

I have a theory on the defense that everyone keeps complaining about especially those who talk about a defensive unit conceding as many goals as ours did this season. This is building on something voiced by @chroniclesofal on twitter so heads up to him for getting me thinking

In 2010/11 as a defensive unit, we had the BEST defensive record in the premiership all the way until March. This record was despite our best defender from the year before, Vermaelen, being injured all season after his achilles problem relapsed multiple times. Also, this record was despite changing goalkeepers from the then calamitous Almunia, to Fabianski (who built up confidence with a run of form) to Szczesny’s emergence after Fabianski got injured to going back full circle after Szczesny got injured at the Camp Nou. Lastly, this defensive record was despite playing three central defenders in their first full seasons in the premiership in Koscielny, Djourou and Squillaci. Of the three, Djourou was our best defender that season though he’s strangely considered useless now (short memories I suppose). 

After Djourou got injured in March, with his form, our defensive record slipped as well that season but we still ended the season with the best defense from open play in the entire league (and one of the poorer ones from set pieces). A defense that had a midfield of Song, Wilshere and Fabregas in front of them.

Over the summer of 2011, every effort was made to add defensive strength. Set pieces were worked on in training extensively. And new signings were made to add strength in the area with the entry of experienced internationals like Mertesacker and Santos. Also, the return of our best defender in Vermaelen and the ever improving Koscielny would prove to be important factors as well. Fast forward to the end of the season and what do we get? Our worst defensive record in a while conceding 49 goals with the defense being exposed from open play often and some glaring individual errors contributing greatly to it as our previously perceived weaknesses from set pieces seems to have improved drastically in comparison.

So what changed? What went wrong?

To an extent, a scoreline like 8-2 is an anomaly. Especially when you consider that it contributed to 16.66% of our goals conceded this entire season. A result like that is bound to skew numbers but lets keep that included for now and discuss the other factors.

INJURIES 

One factor is most definitely injuries. I know people dislike blaming injuries as they believe any team should have sufficient depth to cover for it. However, our injuries were spectacular in their extent this season. There was a point where we missed both our first choice fullbacks (Gibbs and Sagna), both our second choice fullbacks (Santos and Jenkinson) and the two players who could fill in for them in emergency (Coquelin and Vermaelen). I don’t know about you guys but this for me is an unheard of situation. Never have I seen a team lose SIX players who can play full back to injury at the same time. It doesn’t matter what depth you have, these kind of injuries are going to expose you and they did expose us. Playing part timers like Djourou and Miquel who were never really comfortable in this position didn’t do our defensive record (or the former’s reputation) any favours. 

This problem was further compounded in Midfield. Song’s forward forays and occasional irresponsibility to give the ball away was covered up for most of this season through Arteta’s excellent positional play when covering for him (I’ll get to this in the next section). However, Arteta’s absence with injury (in January and from mid April) left us with no true central midfielders capable of doing this job due to season long injuries to Wilshere and Diaby. So when considered, there were times (Especially January) with all our full backs and all our central midfielders missing due to injury. Now people will continue to say, this is why depth matters and it doesn’t affect other teams who have many injuries but I would like to point them to the table below.

I think that should make it clear that no matter how much quality you have on your bench, when injuries hit a team like they did us at particular key areas in the team, its going to be a struggle to get anyone to play there let alone someone of quality. Other teams have not been as exposed as us because while they may have more collective injuries (I believe united topped this table with Vidic and Cleverly out for the season), it isn’t as focused in one area and it does allow for others to step in (United had Evans, Anderson and had to recall Scholes from retirement). This was the state of our injury crisis, especially in December and January when we had our worst run of games since the miserable start to the season.

INDIVIDUAL ERRORS

This was a glaringly large amount this season as several goals would have been easily avoided if it weren’t for individual mistakes. Be it own goals by Koscielny or goalkeeping errors by Szczesny (like the first goal against Norwich) or those like the one by Vermaelen for the first QPR goal. There were also errors further up the pitch such as silly misplaced passes that lead to quick counters when there aren’t enough back defending. This was another factor that contributed to the number of goals conceded. However, this can be fixed with greater focus in training, better concentration on the pitch and better defense as a unit (which I’m hoping Bould would add to the team).

LACK OF MIDFIELD COVER

The last part about defending as a unit leads to the last area that was a big factor for goals, especially those on the counter. I mentioned earlier about Song’s forays forward as he tried to create more leaving us exposed. Well for majority of the season, this was covered for by Arteta (Except for one moment against QPR when he was ballwatching). However, without Arteta, we really suffered as Song, when caught out of position had no cover from Ramsey or any one else who doesn’t have the defensive ability of Arteta.

This led to the common misconception that Song doesn’t know how to defend. I personally think this is utterly wrong when you consider he started his career as a CB. Also, I believe his work when covering for part time fullbacks was grossly underrated and unnoticed for some reason. Arteta got plaudits for defending because people thought he was going beyond his job description while Song’s went unnoticed and his errors magnified. Strange though that someone who can’t defend and makes “so many” errors was arguably one of the best DMs around in the 2010/11 season.

WHAT HAPPENED?

Flashback to the summer of 2011. Two big changes happened. We lost a creative force in Cesc and possibly another one in Nasri. We also lost Arshavin to a run of woeful form and ended up dropping all of the creative burden in midfield on Ramsey and others. While he started off brightly from September once the new teammates got in, there were several instances where a gamechanging playmaker like Cesc or Arshavin would’ve helped us break down stubborn defenses. Games like Everton at home or Liverpool away where we were just not able to break through. And in these games in the end, the spark ended up coming from an unlikely source who was out of position, Alex Song.

The departure of Cesc and Nasri forced us to move Song up far more than he did in 2010/11 in order to provide a creative input. And he has to a great extent taken on that job quite well, with 14 assists across all competitions, higher than every other player in the team. However, because of his forays forward it left our often makeshift defense exposed and contributed to a poor defensive record.

Song is a quality DM and has proven this past season that he can offer quality going forward as well. Arteta has also proven that with a partner who complements Song’s forward moves, there is still sufficient cover. However, Song does not need to go forward anywhere near as often if someone else is able to offer the creative spark that was missing this year. So THIS is the theory. Sign an attacking midfielder, a genuine assist-getting, chance creating playmaker who can rack up 15-20 assists every season and get others involved. Sign someone like this, and watch our defense from open play automatically improve as Song has little need to move forward anymore. Sign a playmaker, and concede less goals next season.

I wrote a while back covering the current state of the squad in the coming summer and those I believe will be departing. I said back then that we have  more than 25 over the age of 21 so we will need to offload a few in order to bring in any new faces and free up wages in the squad. And I believe that those most likely to depart are

Denilson - Probably to Brazil or Spain

Bendtner - There is interest from Swansea and Galatasaray, I’m guessing he stays in the PL

Almunia - Released from the club upon the expiration of his contract

Fabianski - Wants to move, I was under the impression that his contract was due to expire this summer but it doesn’t seem to be the case

Squillaci - Likely to be moving back to France on a free transfer

Vela - There’s interest from Spain and likely to move there for £3-4mil

Arshavin - Likely going back to Zenit for £8mil

Benayoun - Returned to Chelsea

Chamakh and Park - Haven’t heard much in terms of offers for them but it is likely that they will look to move for more playing time.

Pedro Botelho - Has never been a part of our squad but is likely to stay with Levante permanently

Mannone - the club seems to be entertaining offers from a few Championship teams. Unlikely that he stays

Overall these departures above should free up roughly 500k per week in wages and could generate about 25mil in additional transfer funds

So here’s the squad right now. we would have 17 squad spots filled after these departures. We will have room for 8 signings over the age of 21 coming in. Of those, one needs to be homegrown as we only have 7 home grown players in this list including Lansbury whose future with Arsenal isn’t certain. So we technically would only be allowed to fill 24 spots out of the allocated 25 unless we find another squad player. Podolski takes up one more spot now that his signing has been confirmed

GK - Szczesny (HG), Martinez/Shea (U21)

RB - Sagna, Jenkinson(U21)

LB - Santos, Gibbs(HG)

LCB - Vermaelen, Djourou(HG), Miquel(U21)

RCB - Koscielny, Mertesacker, Bartley(U21)

CM (enforcer) - Song(HG), Coquelin(U21), Frimpong(U21)

CM (link man) - Arteta, Wilshere(U21), Diaby, Lansbury(HG)

CAM - Ramsey(HG), Rosicky, Eisfeld(U21)

LW - Podolski, Gervinho, Ryo(U21)

CF - RVP, Afobe(U21), Campbell(U21)

RW - Walcott(HG), AOC(U21)

Now looking at this on a position by position basis, I’ll be rating the need level at different positions for a signing.

Goalkeeper — Szczesny, Martinez

With both Almunia and Fabianski departing this summer, and now Mannone seemingly off as well, there is a definite need for a solid and reliable backup goalkeeper. Someone with experience to challenge Szczesny would be ideal. Behind him we have emerging youngster, Martinez, who looks like the next big thing with his performances for the U18s.

Need Level : VERY HIGH — we need an experienced backup to Szczesny. There have been stories in the media linking us with Birmingham youngster, Jack Butland, but I don’t think there is much truth in it.

Fullbacks — RIGHT — Sagna, Jenkinson (backup Coquelin) — LEFT — Santos, Gibbs (backup Vermaelen)

Arguably the best RB in the world with a promising and versatile youngster as his backup on the right gives me little to worry about. While Sagna might be injured and only returning to the starting lineup by late September or October, I feel we have sufficient quality in Jenkinson and Coquelin to fill in at RB for the first month or two until his return.

Also, Santos and Gibbs competing with each other on the left is a good thing. Santos, I believe, is a good LB whose excellent attacking abilities were starting to be complemented by improving defensive abilities just before his injury. According to the ever reliable whoscored.com - Santos led the team in Tackles and Interceptions overall before he got injured. Gibbs, still remains an excellent potential LB prospect but I think both are equally capable of starting and I wouldn’t mind seeing either one there. Behind the primary fullbacks we have Coquelin and Vermaelen who are both very capable of filling in the two fullback spots in case of emergency.

Need Level : Low — Now last season’s FB injury crisis might indicate that we could use with some depth here but it was a rare scenario in which all FOUR of our fullbacks as well as their backups were injured for a few weeks in January when we ended up losing 3 games on the trot. This is an unheard of situation in which SIX players capable of playing the fullback role were injured and I don’t believe in lightning striking twice at the same position(the season before was Goalkeeper) and I don’t think we need a panic fullback signing when there are other positions that are priority.

Centerbacks — Vermaelen, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Djourou, Bartley, Miquel

A combination of Vermaelen and Koscielny has the potential to be one of the best in Europe and behind them we have Mertesacker and Djourou who are both arguably the best 3rd and 4th choice CBs in the league. I know many seem to be wary of Djourou but I believe this is down to an unfortunate case of short term memory as he was arguably our best defender in the 2010/11 season until his injury and it is impossible to judge his ability as a CB last season when most of his appearances have been out of position at RB. Youngsters Bartley and Miquel will be fighting for the 5th choice CB spot and I suspect that the latter might even be going on loan.

Need Level : Low — I see no need for us to look for a CB. I have seen us linked to Vertonghen by the media (now that his deal to Spurs is seemingly off) but barring his versatility off the bench (he can play DM, LB, CB), I don’t see him filling a pressing need (unless another CB leaves) and I also don’t believe that he’d move teams in order to sit on the bench. The only scenario in which we need a CB is if one of the existing leaves and if it is Djourou (as mentioned again by the media) then we are likely to promote someone to be his replacement (although Rangers fans don’t seem to think too highly of him after his 2nd loan spell)

Center Midfielders 

(pseudo DM enforcer) — Song, Coquelin, Frimpong

(pseudo DM link man) — Arteta, Wilshere, Diaby

STARTERS

We DO NOT have a defined DM in our current fluid midfield system. Instead we have two players who seem to alternate and take turns in sitting back in front of the defense and going forward and making a difference.

Songinho has proven to be a creative force this season going forward but when he is tasked with sitting back and doing his job, he’s a good DM as well. This whole myth that he cannot defend is ridiculous in my opinion as a lot of his work goes unnoticed as he often takes up excellent positions when covering for fullbacks and centerbacks who drift forward. This was especially true this season when he spent a LOT of his time covering for part time fullbacks like Djourou who were often caught out of position due to being unaccustomed to the role. The only criticism of Song I have was his lack of responsibility in Arteta’s absence where forward runs or ill advised passes in dangerous areas put us under pressure. This is something that can be fixed however and its easy to forget that Song is only 24 and is only going to get better and better.

Arteta has been an invaluable cog in midfield this season. He hasn’t lit up the goals and assists charts but his ability to retain possession and keep the ball moving is excellent. More importantly, his ability to cover for Song when the latter transforms into Songinho has been invaluable. I believe he will continue to start games next season. However, as the season drew to a close, we grew more and more aware of how much we suffered without a suitable backup or alternative for him and this makes this an area of concern. Also, Arteta’s age would mean we get another 2-3 seasons from him but would need a rotation option for greater strength in depth and to prolong Arteta’s career.

ALTERNATIVES

Wilshere, potentially one of the best players of his generation, is just coming off of an injury that has kept him out an entire season and will not be ready to play week in, week out well into next season. There is no need to rush him back or we risk burning him out like we did with Ramsey last season who was similarly returning from a season out injured. I know some argue that Wilshere would make a great playmaker but on the basis of his performances for us, I believe his drive and grit would be of more use in this spot and his creative ability could be put to use as a deep lying playmaker like a Xavi or a Pirlo.

Coquelin has shown exceptional promise as both a defensive minded midfielder with an eye for a pass and as a tenacious fullback. I expect him to fully embrace these roles to greater effect and be a versatile backup keeping the starters on their toes.

Behind both of these, we have Diaby who on the basis of interviews is going through the expected set of minor injuries that accompany the recovery from a serious injury/surgery like the one he had last summer. I believe he has incredible ability and if it weren’t for his injuries, he’d be challenging to be a regular starter here and I believe we need to keep faith in the player who despite injuries has the quality to be one of the first names for the French National Team selection when fit. However, I do believe that going by his injury history, and his and Arsenal’s terrible luck with injuries, he cannot be entirely depended on to be guaranteed backup option for this spot right away until he makes it past the injuries.

Frimpong will also be out injured till midway through the season and I believe he needs at least a year on loan for him to mature and tone down his aggression without which it will be tough for him to make it as an Arsenal regular. I don’t think we can count on him to be a part of the squad for the 2012/13 season.

Need Level : VERY HIGH — In Arteta’s absence we’ve been horribly exposed at times in midfield both in terms of defensive cover and in terms of ball retention and for this reason we definitely need a signing here who can rotate with Arteta and Song and even step in in Song’s absence during the AFCON. The answer here has already been linked to us multiple times and many claim the transfer is as good as done. Yann M’Vila.

Attacking Midfield Playmaker — Rosicky, Ramsey (emergency backup Oxlade-Chamberlain)

Rosicky had recovered his best form the last few weeks of the season and signed a 2 year contract extension with the club. If he can maintain this form, he is up there among the best with his silky smooth passing and movement and ability to spot a pass. The advantage with him is that due to the seasons missed with injury, footballistically he still has at least a couple more years left in his tank at what is his prime. However, a recent achilles injury picked up at the Euros seemed to aggravate a previous injury problem and this might be cause for concern though the extent of the injury can only be fully evaluated once he returns to the club.

Ramsey has taken a lot of unfair stick last season because of multiple reasons. People expected him to replace Cesc immediately (very big shoes to fill), they also tended to forget that this was his first full season for us back from a near career ending injury and injuries to other midfielders meant that he was grossly overplayed this season leading to fatigue and burnout. With Rosicky on form and starting ahead of him, he will have the time and the chance to fight his way back into contention for a starting spot. Also, Wenger has indicated that he intends to use the Ox as a CAM in the long run but he will primarily be used as a wide forward to aid his development.

Need Level : MEDIUM TO HIGH — Rosicky and Ramsey are great options but a playmaker of Cesc’s caliber hasn’t been accurately replaced. Also, Rosicky’s injury, if it proves to be worse than first thought could mean that a signing here is more important than ever. A signing like Gourcuff(I believe Arsene could revive his career) or Gotze (would be really expensive) would be immense and would aid us immensely in unlocking stubborn defenses but such signings aren’t easy to find.

Wide Forwards — Podolski, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gervinho, Ryo

Our wide forwards are fairly versatile and could play either flank with ease. Their pace, dribbling and off the ball movement is excellent. However, two of the 4 players here are still teenagers and both Theo and Gervinho haven’t been consistent last season despite having provided several goals for Van Persie through assists. I believe Gervinho will come good and could potentially provide 10-15 goals and 10-15 assists a year. It is easy to forget that this was his first season in a new league and also that his primary position when playing for Lille was more on the right flank thank the left that he plays here.

Podolski was someone we needed. Someone who was naturally left sided in the wide forward role as all our other wide forwards barring Ryo are naturally right sided. He would slot in perfectly on the left and I believe we have no further concerns at this spot. This will also allow for us to send Ryo on loan for one more season and come back stronger for next year.

Need Level : NONE

Striker — Van Persie, Campbell, Afobe

Currently the best striker in the world and everyone is hoping for him to renew his contract. His form has ensured that both his backups this season have grown impatient with the apparent lack of opportunities (though some argue that they haven’t had opportunities because of lack of quality but I don’t entirely believe that). Joel Campbell has looked quite good on loan at Lorient and has plenty of potential but he isn’t ready to be a first choice backup (neither is Afobe) and there is also the issue of his securing his work permit. 

Need Level : HIGH — We can’t bank on two untested teenagers to be backups to the current best striker in the world. Thus our imminent signing of Giroud is vital and seems likely to happen and that would be all we need in this area.

So OVERALL

Our primary needs are for one CF (Giroud), one wide forward/CF hybrid (Podolski done), one CM/pseudo DM (M’Vila), one experienced goalkeeper and possibly one AM playmaker. Its fantastic to see progress being made on exactly these areas and to see them all done before the pre-season or before August would be the perfect way to handle the summer. 

Any signings made beyond this could be added mostly for depth as we would be losing several players who contribute to depth. A couple of versatile backups and the usual mix of promising youngsters should complete what looks like a summer of trimming the fringe players and adding players where needed.

I wrote an article a couple of days ago covering the current state of the squad in the coming summer and those I believe will be departing. 

We will have 28 players over the age of 21 so we will need to offload a few in order to bring in any new faces and free up wages in the squad. And I believe that those most likely to depart are

Denilson

Bendtner

Almunia

Fabianski

Squillaci

Vela

Arshavin

Park

Benayoun

Chamakh (I hadn’t included him in my previous post but his quote from January suggests that he’ll be looking at getting more playing time in the Summer)

Overall these departures above should free up roughly 500k per week in wages and could generate about 25-35mil in transfer funds (Arshavin + Denilson + Bendtner + Vela + Squillaci + Park + Chamakh)

So here’s the squad at the start of next summer. we have 18 squad spots filled after these departures. We will have room for 7 signings over the age of 21 coming in. We already have the required 8 home grown players so we don’t need to look for any of those just yet.

GK - Szczesny (HG), Mannone (HG), Martinez/Shea (U21)

RB - Sagna, Jenkinson(U21)

LB - Santos, Gibbs(HG)

LCB - Vermaelen, Djourou(HG), Miquel(U21)

RCB - Koscielny, Mertesacker, Bartley(U21)

DM - Song(HG), Coquelin(U21), Frimpong(U21)

CM - Arteta, Wilshere(U21), Diaby, Lansbury(HG)

CAM - Ramsey(HG), Rosicky, Ozyakup/Eisfeld(U21)

LW - Gervinho, Ryo(U21)

CF - RVP, Afobe(U21), Campbell(U21)

RW - Walcott(HG), AOC(U21)

Now looking at this on a position by position basis, I’ll be rating the need level at different positions for a signing.

Goalkeeper — Szczesny, Mannone, Martinez

With both Almunia’s and Fabianski’s contracts expiring this summer, the onus is on Mannone to step up as 2nd choice keeper. He has had one sensational game for us in the Premier League against Fulham but it seems like ages ago. His form was up and down since then but his performances in the Championship this season have reduced my doubts about his ability. He now holds a record for Hull City for not conceding a goal for something like 10 hours and he’s been a big reason why they’re as high up as 9th in the Championship with one of the best defensive records. Behind him we have emerging youngster, Martinez, who looks like the next big thing with his performances for the U18s or James Shea who is potentially an unknown and is currently on loan at Dag & Red in League 2. 

Need Level : Low to Medium — if in case of extreme doubt, we could be looking at an experienced backup to Szczesny but it isn’t a priority. There have been stories in the media linking us with Birmingham youngster, Jack Butland, but I don’t think there is much truth in it.

Fullbacks — RIGHT — Sagna, Jenkinson (backup Coquelin) — LEFT — Santos, Gibbs (backup Vermaelen)

Arguably the best RB in the world with a promising and versatile youngster as his backup on the right gives me little to worry about. Also, Santos and Gibbs competing with each other on the left is a good thing. Santos, I believe, is a good LB whose excellent attacking abilities which were starting to be complemented by improving defensive abilities just before his injury. According to the ever reliable whoscored.com - Santos led the team in Tackles and Interceptions overall before he got injured. Gibbs, still remains an excellent potential LB prospect but his injury prone nature is still a bit of a concern and I believe Santos to be a starter over him. Behind the primary fullbacks we have Coquelin and Vermaelen who are both very capable of filling in the two fullback spots in case of emergency.

Need Level : Low to medium — Now this season’s FB injury crisis might indicate that we could use with some depth here but it was a rare scenario in which all FOUR of our fullbacks as well as their backups were injured for a few weeks in January when we ended up losing 3 games on the trot. This is an unheard of situation in which SIX players capable of playing the fullback role were injured and I don’t believe in lightning striking twice at the same position(last season was Goalkeeper) and I don’t think we need a panic fullback signing when there are other positions that are priority.

Centerbacks — Vermaelen, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Djourou, Bartley, Miquel

A combination of Vermaelen and Koscielny has the potential to be one of the best in Europe and behind them we have Mertesacker and Djourou who are both arguably the best 3rd and 4th choice CBs in the league. I know many seem to be wary of Djourou but I believe this is down to an unfortunate case of short term memory as he was arguably our best defender in the 2010/11 season until his injury and it is impossible to judge his ability as a CB this season when most of his appearances have been out of position at RB. Youngsters Bartley and Miquel will be fighting for the 5th choice CB spot and I suspect that the latter might even be going on loan.

Need Level : Low — I see no need for us to look for a CB. I have seen us linked to Vertonghen by the media but barring his versatility off the bench (he can play DM, LB, CB), I don’t see him filling a pressing need (unless another CB leaves) and I also don’t believe that he’d move teams in order to sit on the bench.

Defensive Midfielders — Song, Coquelin, Frimpong

Songinho has proven to be a creative force this season going forward but when he is tasked with sitting back and doing his job, he’s a good DM as well. A lot of his work goes unnoticed as he often takes up excellent positions when covering for fullbacks and centerbacks who drift forward. His backup Coquelin has looked to have massive potential to make it at the big stage and Frimpong behind them makes for a well stocked defensive midfield. 

Need Level : Low — Frimpong might be injured until late this season but with two DMs ahead of him, his presence won’t be missed right away. And by the time the usual injuries begin to strike around mid season, he should be back and ready for selection in the rotation. We should be fine with Coquelin and Frimpong even when (and if) Song departs for the African Cup of Nations in January.

Central Midfield Link Man — Arteta, Wilshere, Diaby

Arteta has been an invaluable cog in midfield this season. He hasn’t lit up the goals and assists charts but his ability to retain possession and keep the ball moving is excellent. I believe he will continue to start games next season. Wilshere, potentially one of the best players of his generation, is just coming off of an injury that has kept him out an entire season and will not be ready to play week in, week out well into next season. There is no need to rush him back or we risk burning him out like we did with Ramsey this season who was similarly returning from a season out injured. I know some argue that Wilshere would make a great playmaker but on the basis of his performances for us, I believe his drive and grit would be of more use in this spot and his creative ability could be put to use as a deep lying playmaker like a Xavi or a Pirlo.

Behind both of these, we have Diaby who on the basis of recent interviews is going through the expected set of minor injuries that accompany the recovery from a serious injury/surgery like the one he had in the summer. I believe he has incredible ability and if it weren’t for his injuries, he’d be challenging to be a regular starter here and I believe we need to keep faith in the player who despite injuries has the quality to be one of the first names for the French National Team selection when fit.

Need Level : Low — Some excellent options in this spot. No need for a signing.

Attacking Midfield Playmaker — Rosicky, Ramsey (emergency backup Oxlade-Chamberlain)

Rosicky has recovered his best form in recent weeks and has just signed a 2 year contract extension with the club. If he can maintain this form, he is up there among the best with his silky smooth passing and movement and ability to spot a pass. The advantage with him is that due to the seasons missed with injury, footballistically he still has at least a couple more years left in his tank at what is his prime.

Ramsey has taken a lot of unfair stick this season because of multiple reasons. People expected him to replace Cesc immediately (very big shoes to fill), they also tended to forget that this is his first full season for us back from a near career ending injury and injuries to other midfielders meant that he was grossly overplayed this season leading to fatigue and burnout. With Rosicky in this form and starting ahead of him, he will have the time and the chance to fight his way back into contention for a starting spot. Also, Wenger has indicated that he intends to use the Ox as a CAM in the long run but he will primarily be used as a wide forward to aid his development.

Need Level : Medium to High — Rosicky and Ramsey are great options but a playmaker of Cesc’s caliber hasn’t been accurately replaced. A signing like Gotze would be immense and would aid us immensely in unlocking stubborn defenses.

Wide Forwards — Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gervinho, Ryo

Our wide forwards are fairly versatile and could play either flank with ease. Their pace, dribbling and off the ball movement is excellent. However, two of the 4 players here are still teenagers and both Theo and Gervinho haven’t been consistent this season despite having provided several goals for Van Persie through assists. I believe Gervinho will come good and could potentially provide 10-15 goals and 10-15 assists a year. It is easy to forget that this is his first season in a new league and also that his primary position when playing for Lille was more on the right flank thank the left that he plays here.

Need Level : Medium to High — It would be great to see a new signing come in, particularly someone who is naturally left sided since Gervinho, Ox and Theo are all primarily right sided and Ryo might not be ready to be starting regularly for AFC. There are very strong rumours linking us to Podolski and he would be a perfect fit on the left side of the front three. He plays this position to perfection for the German national team and thrives in that role.

Striker — Van Persie, Campbell, Afobe

Currently the best striker in the world and everyone is hoping for him to renew his contract (which I believe he will). His form has ensured that both his backups this season have grown impatient with the apparent lack of opportunities (though some argue that they haven’t had opportunities because of lack of quality but I don’t entirely believe that). Joel Campbell has looked quite good on loan at Lorient and has plenty of potential but he isn’t ready to be a first choice backup (neither is Afobe) and there is also the issue of his securing his work permit. 

Need Level : VERY HIGH — We can’t bank on two untested teenagers to be backups to the current best striker in the world. Our link with Podolski gives us a world class player who could play either on the left or backup RVP through the middle with little drop in quality (I believe Podolski will start on the left). However, if Campbell fails to get his work permit, there could also be a need for another striker with media links emerging with Matias Suarez, Yarmolenko, Odemwingie and others. Podolski and one more striker would be the perfect signings.

So OVERALL

Our primary need is for one CF, one wide forward/CF hybrid and one playmaker. Podolski would be the perfect wide forward/CF hybrid and there are several options who could be good fits for the other two needs. Depending on the resources the club has left at its disposal after these signings, contract renewals (Walcott, Van Persie), we can then consider a luxury signing like Vertonghen, whose versatility would be useful off the bench but isn’t a priority.

Any signings made beyond this could be added mostly for depth as we would be losing several players who contribute to depth. A couple of versatile backups and the usual mix of promising youngsters should complete what looks like a summer of trimming the fringe players and adding players where needed.

My next article will focus listing players who I believe should be potential targets and could help with our needs and with depth.

I wrote an article a couple of days ago covering the current state of the squad in the coming summer. We will have 28 players over the age of 21 so we will need to offload a few in order to bring in any new faces and free up wages in the squad.

Here is more on those I believe are most likely to depart.

Denilson and Bendtner - both have arguably burnt their bridges in some ways with the club and in every way the fans (though I do hold out hope that they stay, especially bendtner). While they are likely to leave, it is very easy to forget that they’re only turning 24 this season and barring a poor 2010/11 they were decent young players with a lot of promise before that and could still come good elsewhere. No point in complaining then since I do believe that we as fans have in some ways contributed to their desire to leave because we got on their backs last season when both were mostly being played out of position (Nick is not a winger, Denilson isn’t a pure defensive midfielder)

Almunia and Fabianski - both have contracts that expire this summer. Fabianski is likely to leave because he is supposedly not very happy being understudy to a fellow Polish GK who is younger than him (he tried to leave on loan in January)

Squillaci - Will make way after failing to adapt well to the PL. Not as terrible as made out to be but getting old. Also, Bartley will be back from loan. Also need to offload him to free up wages (though we might still have to subsidize it by a bit to get him to move)

Vela - Has never really been given a proper chance here. Loan move last year failed because of his agent first (messed up the move to Bolton) and then the managerial change left him playing for West Brom under a manager who didn’t sign him on loan. Still made a few appearances and scored a couple of vital goals for them. His best performance came against big guns City — http://youtu.be/XVr48Etggmk. Now on loan in Spain and doing quite well, has apparently indicated that he’d prefer to stay there. I’m a fan but he’s just not got the chances here.

Arshavin - Great player who now looks a shadow of the player who scored 4 at Anfield. The fans getting on his back this season hasn’t helped either and he is likely to return home to Zenit in the summer.

Park - A real head scratcher of a transfer. I’m not sure if this was a purely commercial signing or if we were looking for something else but sitting on the bench with barely any appearances seems to have annoyed the player and his agent has been making soungs about leaving in the summer. I’ve seen him in a couple of games and it looked like he had some ability but wasn’t ready physically yet.

Benayoun — returns to Chelsea after his loan spell.

Overall these departures above should free up roughly 500k per week in wages and could generate about 25-35mil in transfer funds (Arshavin + Denilson + Bendtner + Vela + Squillaci + Park)

So here’s the squad at the start of next summer. With the ones most likely to depart removed.

GK - Szczesny (HG), Mannone (HG), Martinez (U21)

RB - Sagna, Jenkinson(U21), Yennaris(U21)

LB - Santos, Gibbs(HG)

LCB - Vermaelen, Djourou(HG), Miquel(U21)

RCB - Koscielny, Mertesacker, Bartley(U21)

DM - Song(HG), Coquelin(U21), Frimpong(U21)

CM - Arteta, Wilshere(U21), Diaby, Lansbury(HG)

CAM - Ramsey(HG), Rosicky, Ozyakup/Eisfeld(U21)

LW - Gervinho, Ryo(U21)

CF - RVP, Chamakh, Afobe(U21), Campbell(U21)

RW - Walcott(HG), AOC(U21)

So that means we have 19 squad spots filled after these departures. We will have room for 6 signings over the age of 21 coming in. We already have the required 8 home grown players so we don’t need to look for any of those just yet.

In my next note, I’ll take a look at areas where we potentially need signings in the team.

PS. Chamakh has said he might consider his AFC future in the summer due to lack of playing time but for now I’ve not considered him to be leaving

First up a big thanks to @DarrenArsenal1, @LittleDutchVA, @10akhil and @1Walid1 for their extremely informative updates from the AST meeting. Provided some great insights into the current state of the club

Now that I’ve had a night to ponder over a lot of the points, this is my take (Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong on any of this)

• Starting with the obvious, finances are extremely tight. We break even based on our income and the only profits we make are from player and property sales and that pretty much fuels future purchases of players. 
• I was under the impression that we depend on the Champions’ League for 25mil of vital income for the running of the club. Turns out that the amount is actually 45mil which makes it even more essential as that would cause a massive shortfall in revenue. And missing out on that, we either make a loss that would put us in violation of FFP or we compensate by taking money from transfer budget and profits
• On that note, the current 55mil transfer profit and the projected 35mil earnings on the Queensland road properties gives us enough buffer for two years without Champions’ League football. However, this would mean that any and all transfer funds will have to be generated from player sales and freeing up of wages.
• The amount we have available for transfers is basically the money from Cesc and Nasri - whatever war chest we had prior to last summer was spent (figures indicated 54mil spent on transfers and I don’t think this includes wages and signing/agent fees)
• 4th highest wage budget and we’re expected to finish 4th - again, stating the obvious. Far outstripped by United, Chelsea and City. We are also spending more than Spurs.
• Our commercial deals are horrendous. By my own calculations, just on the kit and shirt sponsors, united and liverpool are earning about 30mil more than we are. We are getting far less money overall than the likes of United and even if they might be a bigger global brand name, our renewals in 2014 should be able to cut that gap considerably but until then, there isn’t any change in this.
• For the above point on commercial deals, the argument that not being in the CL might lead us to a massive loss in new ones doesn’t hold water as the current largest sponsorship combination is starting from next season for Liverpool (warrior+stan-chart), who haven’t been in the CL in the last 2-3 seasons.
• There was a figure of 71 players that caused quite a bit of strife among fans but to put this in perspective, United have 65 players registered as well. This number is roughly on par with other clubs and not something to overreact about since if we’re being “mismanaged” as several referred to it, all the others are too.
• There is also a massive uproar on the wages that certain players are earning. I’d like to wager that while these look extremely strange based on what we know of the team currently, no one is looking at these on the basis of the time of signing these contracts. I will be posting a note later about this very thing.
• If there is one thing I noticed, a few people (including myself) had understood that finances were very tight (even if the level of it was underestimated by me). Yesterday, proved to be a reality check for those who consciously or unconsciously ignored this fact with their own theories about how we have money and won’t spend it.
• While the finances might seem grim, I see the next couple of seasons as being tough, especially if we don’t qualify for the CL, but there are still ways to get through this. Also, things will definitely improve once new commercial deals are negotiated in 2014 and we will get through this rough patch considering we have the best man possible leading us.
• This brings me to my last point — yesterday’s figures unquestionably prove that Arsene Wenger has been achieving miracles with the financial limitations that we have. This is despite being forced to generate funds through player sales in recent years. (since 2002 our net transfers have been +4mil). Between now and 2014 when our new commercial deals lead to a better cash flow, there is NO ONE else whom I would want in charge of the club. Yesterday’s figures also show me why Top 4 is the equivalent of a trophy on the basis of its sheer financial importance to our club.

These are my thoughts on the matter for now. In case I’ve missed anything, I might come back and add a couple more points. 

PS. Heard that someone made a comment during the meeting that if we finish 5th and have no CL, they won’t go for games. All I can do to that is SMH.

Everyone talks about a potential clear out coming this summer and I think this might actually be something that is enforced because of the squad limit rule. Including the players who return from loan, we will have 28 players over the age of 21 who need to be registered in the first team. Of these 28, 10 are home grown and we require a minimum of 8 home grown players over the age of 21 in the 25 man squad limit.

We need to sell or loan out 3 existing players to just get within our limits. Also, unless we are only looking at signing U21 players, we will have to sell/loan even more since we will be looking to strengthen over the summer as well. So we’re going to move on at least 5-6 people during the summer both to free up squad spaces and generate funds.

Based on the state of the squad and the number of players in certain position, the following are among those most likely to depart on permanent deals — Almunia, Mannone, Squillaci, Denilson, Arshavin, Bendtner and Park (if we can offload him since whoever signs him will only get 1.5 seasons out of him before he has to go to the army)

Squad at the start of next summer. With the ones most likely to depart struck out.

GK — Szczesny (HG), Fabianski, Almunia, Mannone(HG), Martinez (U21)

RB - Sagna, Jenkinson(U21), Yennaris(U21)

LB - Santos, Gibbs(HG)

LCB - Vermaelen, Djourou(HG), Miquel(U21)

RCB - Koscielny, Mertesacker, Squillaci, Bartley(U21)

DM - Song(HG), Coquelin(U21), Frimpong(U21)

CM - Arteta, Wilshere (U21), Denilson(HG), Diaby, Lansbury(HG)

CAM - Ramsey(HG), Rosicky, Ozyakup/Eisfeld(U21)

LW - Gervinho, Arshavin, Ryo(U21), Vela(HG)

CF - RVP, Chamakh, ark, Bendtner, Afobe(U21), Campbell(U21)

RW - Walcott(HG), AOC(U21)

So that means we have 21 squad spots filled after these departures. We will have the full requirement of 8 home grown players and we will have room for 4 signings over the age of 21 coming in. Obviously this doesn’t consider that we offload any more players or if anyone wants to leave such as Chamakh who said he might reconsider his future over the summer in order to get more game time.

I think most criticism of him has been over the top. Watching recent games closely, what everyone sees is him misplacing passes right now and being wasteful with his finishing. What a lot of people miss is the fact that he is the one unlocking defenses the most and if those around him were finishing better (Especially Theo), he’d be soaring in the assist charts. He has some excellent quick turns and changes of pace and gets into great positions with some intelligent runs in and around the box. I believe with a bit of rest/rotation, confidence, experience and a bit of support from the players around him (in terms of taking chances) and the fans (in terms of not getting on his back) he could potentially be a world beater in a year’s time in his position.

People are looking left and right and digging deeper and deeper to find out what is the cause of our recent run of form that hearkens back to the opening weeks of the season. They are choosing to blame everyone from the board to the manager to individual scapegoats (and in some cases refs too). But they’re missing the simple explanation and I believe it is the same overall issues now as it was back in August.

1. Several key players AND their backups missing until yesterday — So we’re not playing our first choice XI and we’re missing first choice backups too, forcing us to play part timers in key roles. Arteta, Sagna (plus Gervinho’s at the AFCON and Santos + Wilshere are out until March). All 4 of these directly slot into the first choice XI for the team. 

As any good team should, we need to have backups and as surprising as it may seem to people, we DO have backups. The only problem is — Jack and Diaby are the only two others who are perfectly capable of playing Arteta’s role and they’ve both been out for a while (Rosicky can definitely do it to a certain extent but not in the same way). Sagna and Santos had Jenkinson and Gibbs as backups and then if you step back more, you have Coquelin and Vermaelen as 3rd choice there. Again, we went through a run without Coquelin and Vermaelen and were essentially forced to play Djourou and Miquel in those positions and while they performed admirably, they were exposed against Swansea and United who rely on quick wingers.

Another aspect of the missing fullbacks is how it affects our forward play. Our wingers are too busy trying to cover for the part time fullbacks and at the same time, so is Song. So that is five players who should be going forward more who aren’t as much (2 FBs, 2 Wingers and Song). With teams crowding us out while defending, it is essential to stretch their back line with width to create play through the middle which is where we thrive. Why do you think Ramsey looks jaded and sometimes lacking ideas? He hasn’t had much rest AND he doesn’t have any wide outlets to get the ball to. Without out fullbacks and Gervinho, I’d say only RVP successfully and correctly makes those runs off the ball right now because while Theo should be doing it more, his level of confidence is very low and that leads me to the next point.

2. Confidence — Whenever you hit a bad run of form, confidence drops. Yesterday, despite the return of Arteta and Sagna and creating a boatload of chances, we didn’t hit the back of the net mainly because as a team we’re collectively lacking in confidence right now.

This team performance about creating endless chances and trying incredibly hard and not being able to come up with that final finish or end product is what every off form player goes through as well. Look at Arshavin, Chamakh, Walcott, Ramsey this year (and even Song lately). It isn’t that they aren’t trying, it is just that the confidence has dropped to a level where they’re not trusting their instincts, nothing is coming off and they are constantly second guessing themselves and getting into situations which are essentially lapses in concentration. In Theo, Song and Ramsey in particular, mental fatigue adds to this condition as well.

3. Fan support (or the lack of it sometimes) — This ties directly into 2. The banner carriers and the protestors and the moaners who only come out when we drop points aren’t a sign of support for the team, they’re a sign of fans caring more about their own sense of entitlement to glory (and being right) than they do about the team. And when the players see fans “not cheering till we’re winning” like the 2nd half vs Villa and the increasingly ridiculous propensity to boo as though we’re Blackburn, you think their confidence is going to be sky high and they’re going to be fully charged up and motivated to do well? Its like saying, if you’re at work and you make a mistake, your boss and clients come and boo you to make you do well and you should. Boos are not a motivator no matter what you think and I believe it is a disgrace and even hypocritical to do so when you claim to love your team.

4. Remember — I go back to our recovery in form in August/September. We’d just come off the 8-2 and beaten Swansea 1-0 before drawing again vs Dortmund (After an excellent performance and conceding a wondergoal) and then losing that freak game to Blackburn. The signs I saw then are there now too. Key players ARE returning to the fold, we won a crucial game on Sunday against Villa and today was a minor blip in the turnaround from a shit month called January (we seem to hate transfer window months this season). Now it is time to move forward with the turn around and keep the faith. We’ve turned around 7pts in 7 games with a run that was better than the league leaders, we can turn around 8pts in 8 games with a similar one. We just need to believe in the team.

People keep mentioning 7th after last night as though the end is near but our equation hasn’t changed - we’re still 5 points off 4th and that should tell you how tight it is this season. As Arsene said, we do need to treat every game as a cup final and if there is one thing the league has proven this season, it is that anyone is capable of dropping points at any point of time and with 45 points still up for grabs, there is still a long way to go in the season. All I can say is, keep the faith, keep supporting and save your banners and protests and boos for after the last game of the season (and I bet you won’t even need to use them). I still believe we can get into the top 4 and have every chance of nicking the FA Cup and that despite anything else, would make this season a success for me considering the circumstances and would allow us to tweak the team better over the summer.

Sometimes I wonder how many here actually understand the meaning behind “Victoria Concordia Crescit”. It means victory comes from harmony and I fail to see harmony in those supporting the club. Supporting needs to be through the good and the bad and not turning on the club when the times are bad and yet I see people turning on the club now when things aren’t even remotely bad (frustrating yes, but far from bad). I believe that its the easiest thing in the world to find faults and moan about it but a lot more difficult to accept these faults, understand why they’re there and still love your club despite it.

An incident like Barton’s this weekend, which should have seen all fans, positive, negative, realistic, concerned, unconcerned, extreme and more unite against a common enemy, I have seen people choosing to rather blame their own for it. The referee can be Adolf Hitler ordering firing squads for AFC but I see fans arguing that we should be good enough to beat them. I fail to understand this insane desire of finding faults with everything in your team as though you’re trying to find faults and logical reasoning to break up/divorce someone.

I grow tired of people being critical of everything about the team to the point where it just seems like mindless unabated hate. 

I grow tired of having to defend the team I love from other fans of the very same team far more than those of other teams. 

I grow tired of people slating Arsenal just for the heck of it and to further their own agenda. People pretending like everything about the club is shit and seeking attention as though they are trying to be the sole saviors of the club.

I grow tired of people waiting to see the club falter just so that they can be proven right. People who crawl out of their holes that they hide in when the club is doing well to come and spew hate at the club that is worse than that dished out by the opposition fans.

I grow tired of people failing to uphold club values and willing to sell it all to the devil just for the sake of their own need for glory. They don’t care anymore if things are done the right way, they just want it to be a shiny way.

I grow tired of people who have taken all that is good about this club for granted and constantly moan about that which isn’t and they’ve forgotten how lucky they are to be supporting such a great club. 

I grow tired when people boo in the stadium to selfishly vent their own frustration and when this drops team moral and they perform worse, they find their booing justified when in fact they are the root cause of their own self defeating prophecy.

And lastly, I’m growing tired of this massive divide between fans. Yes I know I am part of this divide and I sit on the positive end of the spectrum and get annoyed at the so called doomers and gloomers but seriously, can’t people realize that they actually love this club, support it through thick and thin and actually live up to the motto that our club is based on. Or is that too much to ask for?

I’m getting tired of having to explain this over and over again so here goes.

Let me get the elephant in the room out of the way first. Our defense wasn’t the greatest last season with 43 conceded and over half of them from set pieces (this includes penalties). For some people, this is causing warning signs and a major panic as though a nuclear meltdown is imminent and that we’re going to be relegated unless we overhaul the entire defense (an exaggeration but not too far from what some are actually thinking)

Now to explain why I think the panic is completely misplaced and almost unneeded. I think our defense is SURELY going to improve this coming season and there is little chance of it not doing so (even if we don’t buy a new LB)

First, set pieces, it isn’t a question of how tall your team is but it is more a question of how well organized your defense is in terms of defensive assignments on set pieces. This can be fixed via practice and focused coaching than by buying one 7 foot tall brick wall. This is also dependent on how long your team has played together as one unit so that the communication is better.

Second, the missing personnel. In Vermaelen, we have a true defensive leader and one of the best CBs around. Last season, his freak injury caused a big miss and having him back to full fitness and raring to go will improve our defense from last season.

Third, last season we had three fit CBs who were all in their first full year in the premiership, two of them from a different league and one returning from a serious injury. Despite this, we were the best defense in the league till March and ended as the fourth best defense overall and as the best defense from open play. This is with CBs who’ve never had a full season in England before. Now with each of them with a season under their belt and a full off season of focused training, they are only going to improve.

Fourth, goals conceded and defensive organization on set plays is also something that involves the goalkeeper. From Almunia’s calamitous moments (interspersed with brilliance like at the Nou Camp) to the unerring stability of Fabianski (he was statistically our best GK last season) to the incredible confidence of Szczesny (DeGea is only marginally better than him and United paid 20mil for him), we had quite an evolution of goalkeepers. However, playing FOUR different goalkeepers over the course of the season didn’t help the defensive organization one bit and was a further cause of set piece mistakes. Next year, with Fabianski and Szczesny as the sureshot 1-2 for goalkeeping, the position gets a lot more stability (and Szczesny’s command over his area is quite good and only going to get better). This stability will also ensure a defensive improvement.

Fifth, Wenger has repeatedly said we’re looking at a defender and there are strong links between us and Jagielka/Samba/Cahill. Personally, I believe Cahill is the best of the three and would be the best fit for our high line and playing style than the other two. He is however not worth the 17mil price tag. The other two offer strength and aerial ability which could prove useful against teams like Stoke. Either way, adding another defender to the rotation will add to our strength in depth in case we are hit by another freak injury…further improvement for sure (whether the new signing is a starter or not)

Sixth, since 2008, we’ve not had the same set of CBs for consecutive years. From Kolo+Gallas to Gallas+Vermaelen to Koscilny+Djourou…we’ve had no stability in terms of continuity in CBs at the club. That is, until this season. With Vermaelen back and all our CBs from last year continuing likely for a few more seasons (barring Squillaci who is getting quite old), the defense will become even more stable.

Seven, for those who paid attention to Arshavin’s recent interview, and those who know how frank and outspoken he is, we are DEFINITELY working hard on set pieces in training and that WILL translate into an improvement in the matches and will get better as the season goes on. A big chink in our armor, being carefully sorted out.

These are seven points as to why I believe the defense will improve. I hope I managed to dispel some of the fears regarding nuclear meltdown. However, only the start and the first few games of the new season will tell us more and at this point I just can’t wait for it as it has been a long and painful summer without the arsenal every weekend.

UPDATE — This quote from Szczesny “Yes, we have been working on it, and I believe it’s working. I genuinely believe it’s going to get much better this season. I see no reason why we should concede goals from set-pieces.” adds to what i’m saying in point 7